REDWOOD CITY, Calif., December 9, 2025 – The U.S. Payments Forum is analyzing industry trends and addressing potential pain points in its Fall Market Snapshot. It’s an amalgamation of insights from leading payment organizations gathered during the Forum’s recent Fall Member Meeting in Minneapolis, hosted by Best Buy. The meeting brought together issuers, merchants, payment networks and other key stakeholders to examine how emerging technologies and policy changes are reshaping transactions.
Agentic commerce finds its footing
At the Fall Member Meeting, speakers emphasized that AI agents are poised to reduce “human toil” in commerce, handling search, comparison and fulfillment, while raising new questions around liability, fraud and operating rules.
Not all agentic commerce interactions are created equal. A representative from Bank of America, describing the consumer ecommerce experience, described a “utility spectrum” for agentic AI use cases. Basic shopping for low-complexity items, such as clothing, may look similar to existing search flows, while higher-value or higher-complexity shopping journeys, like buying a specialized gift or planning travel, are where agents can truly shine. For example, someone could instruct an AI agent to monitor ticket sales for a specific concert, budget and section, then queue and purchase on the cardholder’s behalf the moment inventory is available. These scenarios reduce human time and effort, helping consumers avoid scalpers and manual refreshes. From a merchant’s perspective, agentic commerce may give shoppers fewer modes of payment. A speaker from one big-box retailer pointed out that current agentic approaches focus primarily on credit and debit transactions, even though human checkout might include store-branded cards, pay-in-four options or loyalty offers that drive customers to specific stores.
Agentic fraud was also a recurring theme across the meeting. Payments consultancy CMSPI cautioned that it will likely materialize before regulations catch up, prompting discussion over the need for a distinct “agent-initiated transaction” (AIT) indicator alongside existing customer- and merchant-initiated (CIT and MIT) categories so that participants can properly identify, route and analyze agentic traffic. Representatives from domestic debit networks pointed out that most agent platforms were not built to be merchants of record or to meet PCI obligations. Meanwhile, one global payment network noted that protocol-level approaches, such as an “agentic commerce protocol” aligned with emerging standards like the Model Context Protocol (MCP), could help ensure issuers and merchants receive the data they need to manage disputes and liability.
Those realities reinforce the need for common standards, behavioral monitoring and controls tailored to agents themselves—a gap the Forum’s Emerging Payments Working Committee aims to address in an upcoming white paper on agentic commerce, with a focus on security, data requirements and consumer trust.
Petroleum merchants face a complex EMV and PCI roadmap
Changes in industry security standards are creating new challenges for Petroleum merchants. Forum members highlighted growing tensions regarding EMV and PCI PTS POI certification timelines and the long life cycle of automated fuel dispensers (AFDs). Following the April 2021 outdoor counterfeit liability shift, U.S. fuel retailers invested an estimated $8 billion upgrading roughly 1.9 million AFD payment devices to support EMV, many of them certified on EMV L1 contactless v2.6 and PCI PTS POI v5. Those terminals are fully capable of accepting today’s mobile wallets and tap-to-pay cards, but they now face upcoming EMV contactless and PCI PTS POI end dates just a few years into their 10–20-year operational life. At the same time, newer specifications such as EMV L1 v3.0 and PCI PTS POI v6 introduce support for additional form factors and capabilities, like low-energy wearables and cardholder device confirmation methods (CDCVM), that older hardware may not be able to accommodate.
Speakers at the Fall Member Meeting agreed that the challenge isn’t the existence of evolving EMV and PCI standards, but the complexity of applying them to long-lived, safety-critical outdoor infrastructure. AFD payment roadmaps need to account for the sequencing and interdependence of PCI PTS POI, EMV L1/L2 and L3 certifications, as well as real-world constraints like manufacturer capacity and the availability of certified technicians for installation. Petroleum merchants are weighing options that range from targeted equipment replacement to the use of certification grace periods or compensating controls to avoid abruptly disabling contactless at the pump. The Forum’s Petroleum Working Committee is drafting a white paper on the EMV and PCI PTS POI roadmap for petroleum payments to help AFD vendors, fuel brands, acquirers, processors and retailers understand these trade-offs and plan transitions in a way that maintains both security and outdoor fuel dispenser continuity.
Preparing for a penny-free future
The U.S. has minted its final penny. The potential retirement of the one-cent coin emerged as a surprisingly complex operational theme at the Fall Member Meeting. During a “Hot Topics in Payments” panel featuring Velera, CHS and the NFC Forum, speakers described how penny shortages are putting both merchants and financial institutions in a difficult position. The panel noted that rounding rules are at the center of the challenge. Rounding up in the merchant or bank’s favor violates state and federal laws and could expose retailers to potential lawsuits, while consistently rounding down in the consumer’s favor erodes already thin margins in cash-heavy environments like convenience stores. Many in the industry are looking to federal legislation or clear regulatory guidance to help standardize rounding practices and reduce litigation risk.
During the meeting’s Joint Merchant & Issuer SIG, Forum members highlighted additional downstream impacts. Merchants pointed to state-level gift card “cash back” rules that may require providing cash when balances fall below certain thresholds, raising practical questions about whether to round up or down in a penny-free environment. Banks, meanwhile, expressed concern about their ability to order sufficient pennies during the transition and about handling check cashing when branches no longer stock that denomination. Participants also noted that potential changes to the nickel’s composition, weight or dimensions as part of broader coinage reforms sparked by the penny retirement could force updates to coin-handling equipment in vending, parking, transit and other unattended systems. Across the board, Forum members agreed that a successful transition will require coordinated merchant and FI communication strategies, and early planning across cash, card and digital channels to maintain consumer trust.
Forum priorities
The U.S. Payments Forum’s primary focus is to provide a platform for solving cross-industry challenges and promoting innovation. This is achieved through collaborative discussion, networking events and educational resources. At present, the Forum is working on projects on the following topics:
- Machine Learning from a fraud practitioner POV
- Quantum computing opportunities and threats
- PCI-PTS POI requirements for transit terminals
- EV charging terminal payment acceptance
- Data elements for MCC, ECI and POS entry mode and the importance of proper utilization
Resource recap
Over the past few months, the Forum’s Working Committees leveraged their expertise to publish the following educational resources:
- EV Payments Glossary: A resource that defines a common set of terms and standards to facilitate a clear understanding of electric vehicle (EV) charging payments across the industry.
- Enhancing Merchant Category Codes (MCC) Classification for Mobility Payments: A white paper analyzing gaps in MCC classification for micromobility, public transit, ridesharing, EV charging and parking.
Organizations, associations, government agencies and individuals interested in participating in upcoming Forum projects can visit the Secure Technology Alliance’s website to learn how to become a member. By joining the Secure Technology Alliance, members will have access to activities within the U.S. Payments Forum, the Identity and Access Forum and additional Alliance working committees.
About the U.S. Payments Forum
The U.S. Payments Forum is a cross-industry body that brings stakeholders together on neutral ground to enable efficient, timely and effective implementation of emerging and existing payment technologies. This is achieved through education, guidance and alternative paths to adoption. The Forum is the only non-profit organization whose membership includes the whole payments ecosystem, ensuring that all stakeholders have the opportunity to coordinate, cooperate on and have a voice in the future of the U.S. payments industry. The organization operates within the Secure Technology Alliance, an association that encompasses all aspects of secure digital technologies.
Contact:
Sherlyn Rijos-Altman
[email protected]
Monter Tech PR