REDWOOD CITY, Calif., September 17, 2025 – The U.S. Payments Forum is tapping into industry trends in its summer market snapshot, an amalgamation of insights from top payment organizations gathered during the Forum’s Summer Education Series. The virtual series brought together hundreds of payment stakeholders from across the ecosystem to explore pressing topics, including agentic commerce, tokenization’s evolving role, stablecoin use cases, and how these innovations impact fraud.
Agentic Commerce, from concept to early implementation
The payments industry has long debated the transformative potential of AI on commerce. Today, AI agent-assisted and agent-initiated transactions are finally moving from theory into practice. During the Summer Education Series, one speaker noted that almost 20% of all e-commerce tasks are expected to be performed with the assistance of AI agents by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, a speaker from Visa described autonomous commerce as a world in which AI agents can initiate purchases on a user’s behalf based on predefined instructions. For example, booking flights when prices drop within a set timeframe. In these scenarios, it will be critical to translate the user’s natural language requests into explicit consent (that is understood by all parties) to avoid disputes. In that same vein, other speakers stressed that interoperability and data transparency across issuers, merchants, and technology vendors are essential for agentic commerce to work at scale. A representative with Firmly highlighted the importance of providing Large Language Models (LLMs) with robust catalog and inventory data to enable them to execute purchases effectively and introduced the role of the Model Context Protocol (MCP) in tying networks together during the agentic payment transactions, though adoption will take time.
Discussion during the session emphasized that in the payment orchestration process, every party involved must be aware that an agentic transaction is taking place. This is especially important in the fraud prevention space, where tools are conditioned to flag bots. The advent of agentic commerce introduces the challenge of distinguishing between “good” bots authorized by shoppers and malicious ones. Speakers suggest evolving risk rules to account for agent-initiated transactions and bolstering traceability through tokens to better understand user intent.
Tokenization’s role expands
Tokenization continues to evolve from a security measure into a driver of payment innovation. Fraud prevention teams have praised the technology for enabling unique digital identifiers that are useless if intercepted. According to one speaker this security benefit, combined with better lifecycle management, has fueled adoption; however, the industry must continue to collaborate to ensure that standards for authentication and sharing of token-related data are put in place around tokenization so that every player in the payments ecosystem, independent of processor or network routing choice, can efficiently work toward a secure and consistent client experience.
From a global payment network perspective, Mastercard is observing quantifiable benefits, reporting that merchants using network tokenization have seen a three to six percent uplift in approval rates. Bank of America noted that tokenization adoption has grown “significantly” since 2019 and is enabling more immediate updates to card-on-file databases for things like streaming services and delivery apps.
Despite this momentum, Forum members pointed to implementation challenges, including legacy merchant systems that rely on 16-digit PANs and consumer confusion over what tokens are and how they work. For example, customers insisting that their cards be reissued when fraud occurs, even though tokenization prevents their card numbers from being compromised. Payment Account Reference (PAR) was cited as a solution to link tokenized and reissued card numbers to a single account, enabling merchants and issuers to better track customer activity and fraud patterns.
Stablecoins and the GENIUS Act
The GENIUS Act is creating a clear regulatory framework for stablecoin issuance, with separate paths for bank and qualified non-bank issuers. This puts a spotlight on blockchain-powered financial infrastructure, including not just stablecoins, but other cryptocurrencies and tokenized deposits. When weighing the pros and cons, one speaker explained that stablecoins differ from tokenized deposits because they are designed to operate as open-loop payment instruments, transferable between hundreds or thousands of entities, while tokenized deposits remain within a single bank’s infrastructure and are typically used internally for payment settlement.
Within the payments industry, there are presently pilot programs in place enabling stablecoin settlement for issuers over blockchain, allowing for 24/7 settlement for the first time and reducing credit risk and collateral requirements. Many Forum members agree that cross-border transactions are the primary consumer use case for stablecoins today, given the speed and cost benefits in markets where card penetration is low.
Unfortunately, misuse is often a concern with emerging payment rails. Speakers flagged the significant fraud and scam risks inherent in stablecoins’ open, permissionless networks. Currently, phishing schemes and investment scams top the list of concerns. One speaker predicted that “there will be entire companies built to stop stablecoin fraud issues in the next few years” as pre-transaction risk screening tools become a necessity. The age of digital currencies could shift the focus away from “Know Your Customer” (KYC) strategies in favor of “Know Your Transaction” (KYT) processes.
Joint Merchant and Issuer Special Interest Group
The Forum’s highly anticipated Joint Merchant & Issuer Special Interest Group convened to address pressing matters during the Summer Education Series, such as upcoming changes to chargeback rules, dispute response timeframes, and the opportunity for merchants to share additional transaction data points, such as device ID, IP address, and email, to reduce false declines.
Participants also examined the risks of manual token provisioning, a process that allows fraudsters to enter stolen card information directly into a digital wallet. Speakers noted that more secure alternatives, such as NFC or tap-to-provision methods, as well as provisioning through built-in bank apps, can significantly reduce this risk. Camera capture for provisioning was also flagged as fraud-prone, with current systems unable to reliably distinguish between a live card and a photograph. While eliminating manual entry entirely could strengthen security, speakers cautioned that phone hardware limitations remain a barrier to full adoption.
Forum priorities
The U.S. Payments Forum’s primary focus is to provide a platform for solving cross-industry challenges and promoting innovation. This is achieved through collaborative discussion, networking events and educational resources. At present, the Forum is working on projects on the following topics:
- Quantum computing opportunities and threats
- Enhancing Merchant Category Code (MCC) classification for mobility payments
- Secure Remote Commerce (SRC), click-to-pay
- Emerging mobile wallet technologies
- Electric vehicle payments glossary
Resource recap
Over the past few months, the Forum’s working committees leveraged their expertise to publish the following educational resources:
- Fleet Payments – A Fleet Manager’s Guide to Electric Vehicles: A white paper tackling gaps in EV fleet payment security, data transparency, and interoperability.
- Contextual Payments Considering Artificial Intelligence, 5G, and Internet of Things: A white paper examining how these technologies create the infrastructure for contextual payments across a range of environments.
- Leading Practices for Securing Mobile and Contactless Payments: A white paper offering guidance on tokenization, biometric authentication, secure provisioning, and emerging fraud detection strategies.
- Fraud Prevention & Awareness: Anti-Scam Industry Work Effort: A concise overview of the most common scam tactics, consumer warning signs, and modern tools to interrupt fraud.
- Optimizing EMV Testing & Certification – Automation Strategies for Streamlining Payment Acceptance: A white paper on the benefits of automated testing, Continuous Integration (CI), and Continuous Deployment (CD) to enable faster implementation cycles.
- EMV® 3-D Secure Mini-Series: A brief resource on EMV 3DS for reducing eCommerce fraud, improving transaction approval rates, and minimizing chargebacks.
Organizations, associations, government agencies and individuals interested in participating in upcoming Forum projects can visit the Secure Technology Alliance’s website to learn how to become a member. By joining the Secure Technology Alliance, members will have access to activities within the U.S. Payments Forum, the Identity and Access Forum and additional Alliance working committees.
About the U.S. Payments Forum
The U.S. Payments Forum is a cross-industry body that brings stakeholders together on neutral ground to enable efficient, timely and effective implementation of emerging and existing payment technologies. This is achieved through education, guidance and alternative paths to adoption. The Forum is the only non-profit organization whose membership includes the whole payments ecosystem, ensuring that all stakeholders have the opportunity to coordinate, cooperate on and have a voice in the future of the U.S. payments industry. The organization operates within the Secure Technology Alliance, an association that encompasses all aspects of secure digital technologies.
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